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[ParanoidTimes] Re: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
- "I'm sitting at home after my office closed today and still wondering why my country's economy is being destroyed by panic.""…and the death rate will turn out to be about what the flu is. It seems most likely."If you want to know why then read more of the readers comments and you will see why. The contagion factor is excluded from the authors analysis, which makes his theory just as incomplete as the missing data he complains about.The contagion factor of this virus is far greater than influenza- so if you don't take measures to slow the spread you get a higher death rate because you can't treat all the sick at once. Italy versus China is an actual example of what happens- they are already surpassing China's death rate even though their population pales in comparison (60 million versus 1.35 billion)
- In the same article that you use the Diamond Princess cruise ship as a case study for fatality rates, you estimate that 1% of the U.S population might be infected. The Diamond Princess cruise ship saw nearly 25% of the ship's passengers infected. Perhaps multiple your "lost in the noise" 10,000 influenza-like deaths by 20+.
- The author's choice of influenza and cruise ship results as points of comparison as basis are… just as bad, if not worse, than proceeding with incomplete data.There is a point to not having the data, but this article is irresponsible and biased against in its assumptions. Stating 'we don't know if these measures work' isn't completely accurate either, as we see first hand the difference between what happens in some instances as opposed to others (Italy's death toll will surpass China's).For those touting this author's expertise, know there are others with greater experience indicating otherwise. The author uses 1918 as a reference, so note Frank Macfarlane Burnet (more knowledgeable about influenza than this author ever will be) indicates the actual death toll from influenza was much higher, and that these viruses can mutate and come in multiple waves- the second wave in 1918 was far deadlier.This author fails to take that into consideration, as well as the contagion factor. Th fact that COVID19's viral shed factor is 1,000 times greater than influenza, and it's peak shed is during incubation when many times there are no symptoms (as opposed to influenza, which peaks after it settles into the lungs).
- Why is this article's main source of data the Diamond Princess when we have a much, much larger data set in South Korea? As of March 15th, South Korea had tested 248,000 people, and confirmed 8,162 cases, and recorded 75 deaths. That represents a case fatality ratio of 0.9%. If governments should base their policy decisions on a range of reasonable possibilities, it seems like the South Korea example, where they have conducted the most testing, should be the benchmark – not the Diamond Princess.
- This is misinformation but the premise is right…we really do not know until better data is available.The author selected the cruise ship as a reasonable system to make his argument, then listed confounding variables that make his points appear credible. These variables were presented like a subordinate clause. There are major epidemiologic flaws in his approach.He could be right, but he is brave to make his assertions this early in the game based on this cruise ship.We need draconian measures for at least 1 month until we have better data.MSmore reader commentary here:https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
On March 23, 2020 at 2:33 PM || <smacko9@comcast.net> wrote:
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
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Posted by: || <smacko9@comcast.net>
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